All Articles

#68: You Can't Predict The Future

1 min read

…, people who spend their time, and earn their living, studying a particular topic produce poorer predictions than dart-throwing monkeys who would have distributed their choices evenly over the options. Even in the region they knew best, experts were not significantly better than nonspecialists. - Thinking, Fast and Slow

Nevertheless, the evidence from more than fifty years of research is conclusive for a large majority of fund managers, the selection of stocks is more like rolling dice than like you playing poker. - Thinking, Fast and Slow

Thinking, Fast and Slow is one the few books I wanted to read more than once. So while reading it a second time it reminds me among other things that whoever thinks he or she can predict what will happen in the future lies to him or herself. Even if I think something will happen in the future, that means nothing, cause the future is just unpredictable. The best examples of myself trying to predict the future was for example that Snapchat would take over social media on mobile and Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies would rise unstoppable.